ECONOMICS · RESOLVES JUNE 18Live
Will the Fed maintain rates at the June 2026 meeting?
KalshiBest
96¢
$165K vol
Polymarket
97¢
$276K vol
Cross-platform spread1c · buy YES on Kalshi
FRIDAY, MAY 8, 2026
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The Variant Brief
Issue №3 · May 7, 2026
Today's three watch
Will the Fed maintain rates at the June 2026 meeting?
The Fed-watching class has reached a verdict: barring catastrophe, rates hold steady through mid-June. With both platforms pricing maintenance above 95¢ — and Kalshi slightly cheaper, perhaps on lower execution friction...
Kalshi 96c ★ · Polymarket 97c
Will the Fed cut rates by 25bps at the June 2026 meeting?
Three cents. That's what traders across two platforms are willing to pay for the proposition that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its June 18th meeting—a probability so remote it's nearly an aste...
Kalshi 2c ★ · Polymarket 2c
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