Issue №142 · Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Every prediction market.
One brief.

Independent intelligence for Kalshi and Polymarket today, with Robinhood and Rothera marked coming soon. We watch the spreads so you don't have to.

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2 live · 2 coming soon1,847 markets liveupdates every 30s
Economics · Resolves June 18Live · 09:42 EST

Will the Fed cut rates at the June 2026 meeting?

Kalshi
62¢ +1¢
$2.4M vol
PolymarketBest
58¢ -1¢
$1.8M vol
Robinhood
Coming soon
Deferred
Rothera
Q2 2026
—
Cross-platform spread4c - buy YES on Polymarket

Coverage

Four platforms.
Two live. Two coming soon.

01 / Kalshi

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated · USA

  • Markets684
  • 24hvolume $24.8M
  • Categories14
  • CoverageFull

02 / Polymarket

Polymarket

Crypto · Global

  • Markets912
  • 24hvolume $18.2M
  • Categories12
  • CoverageFull

03 / Robinhood

Robinhood

Coming soon · Deferred

  • Markets-
  • 24hvolume -
  • Categories-
  • CoveragePending

04 / Rothera

Rothera

Launching Q2 2026

  • Markets-
  • 24hvolume -
  • Categories-
  • CoverageComing soon

The Brief

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The Variant Brief

Issue №142 · Apr 28, 2026

Today's three watch

Will the Fed cut rates in June?

CME futures imply a 39% chance, but markets are pricing 60%+ - a meaningful gap that's narrowed twice this month before reverting.

Kalshi 62c · Polymarket 58c ★ · spread 4c

NFL Draft #1 pick is a QB

Climbed 8c overnight on reporting that Tennessee is finalizing a deal for Manning. Volume tripled on Kalshi after midnight.

Kalshi 79c ★ · Polymarket 76c

Live arbitrage

Right now, across
the live platforms.

Robinhood and Rothera are marked coming soon.

№ 01

Bitcoin closes 2026 above $150K

Crypto · Dec 31

K 41cP 33c ★

+8c

$4.1M

№ 02

NFL Draft #1 pick is a QB

Sports · Apr 30

K 79c ★P 76c

+3c

$3.2M

№ 03

US recession declared in 2026

Economics · Dec 31

K 19cP 14c ★

+5c

$2.8M

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03

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