§ ABOUT
Not all prediction markets are independent. Here's what each one actually is and why their prices differ — or don't.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market. Real money, real outcomes, listed contracts. Markets cover economics, politics, weather, sports, and culture. Kalshi is one of the two independent platforms VARIANT tracks for live prices.
TRACKED LIVE
Visit Kalshi →Polymarket is a crypto-native prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain. Markets settle in USDC and lean toward politics, economics, sports, and culture. Polymarket is the second independent platform VARIANT tracks for live prices, alongside Kalshi.
TRACKED LIVE
Visit Polymarket →Robinhood Event Contracts launched in 2025 and quickly became Robinhood's fastest-growing product line. But Robinhood doesn't run its own exchange for prediction markets — it routes trades through Kalshi's CFTC-regulated infrastructure. The contracts and prices on Robinhood are the same as on Kalshi; only the app is different. VARIANT shows Robinhood prices as a Kalshi mirror so users who already trade in the Robinhood app know where to find the same market.
MIRRORS KALSHI
Visit Robinhood →Rothera is a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, formed to build a designated contract market for prediction markets independent from Kalshi. The venture acquired MIAXdx (a CFTC-licensed exchange) in January 2026 and is expected to begin operations in 2026. Once Rothera launches with public market data, VARIANT will track it as the third independent platform alongside Kalshi and Polymarket.
COMING SOON